Harris

Policy Stance on Oil and Gas

• A Harris administration is likely to continue and possibly expand the clean energy policies initiated by the Biden administration. This includes a strong focus on climate action and environmental justice.
• Harris has moderated her stance on fracking, recently stating she does not support a ban on it, particularly in light of political considerations such as the importance of Pennsylvania in the election.

LNG Export Permits

• The current pause on LNG export permits, initiated by the Biden administration, is expected to continue or be handled with additional scrutiny under a Harris administration. This pause is for updating economic and environmental studies to determine if additional exports are in the public interest.
• Industry officials worry that a Harris administration could slow-walk the permitting process and set a higher bar for export authorizations, potentially including new considerations for impacts on disadvantaged communities.

Drilling on Public Lands

• Harris is likely to restrict drilling on public lands and in offshore waters, aligning with the Democratic Party's platform. This could include reducing the number of offshore oil and gas sales and limiting the acres available for oil and gas activity on public lands.

Regulatory Environment

• A Harris administration is expected to maintain or increase the regulatory scrutiny seen under the Biden administration. This includes close reviews of upstream deals and antitrust reviews, which could make the deal-making environment more cumbersome.
• Environmental regulations are likely to play a significant role in shaping the industry's future, with a focus on protecting public health and the environment.

Industry Consolidation

• The restrictive regulatory environment under a Harris administration could lead to more industry consolidation, particularly if drilling on federal lands is restricted. This might push companies towards mergers and acquisitions rather than new leases and drilling.

Financing and Investment

• There could be a continuation of the Biden administration's reluctance to use development finance for fossil fuel infrastructure, such as gas import and distribution facilities overseas. This could impact the financing of new oil and gas projects.
• Private equity investments might flow more towards non-core divestitures from large public companies rather than new project developments.

Global Market Impact

• The uncertainty and potential delays in LNG project development could create long-lasting concerns among key LNG buying nations about potential supply disruptions. This could impact the global market share of US LNG supply.

Economic and Job Impacts

• Harris's energy policies aim to balance energy production with climate and environmental goals. She has supported landmark legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, which has created jobs in the clean energy sector while ensuring energy security and independence.
• The administration is likely to focus on creating high-quality jobs in the clean energy and electric vehicle sectors, while also ensuring that traditional energy industries are managed in a way that aligns with broader environmental and economic goals.

In summary, a Kamala Harris administration would likely prioritize clean energy and environmental policies, potentially leading to a more stringent regulatory environment for oil and gas projects, including LNG exports. This could result in slower project development, increased industry consolidation, and a shift towards cleaner energy sources.